Author Topic: NOAA updated hurricane predictions  (Read 449 times)

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Offline Spindrift

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NOAA updated hurricane predictions
« on: August 02, 2005, 01:05:09 PM »
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  • http://www.cnn.com/2005/WEATHER/08/02/hurr...reut/index.html

    WASHINGTON (Reuters) -- This year's Atlantic hurricane season will be worse than previously expected with as many as 21 tropical storms and 11 hurricanes, U.S. government weather forecasters predicted Tuesday.

    "Although we have already seen a record-setting seven tropical storms during June and July, much of the season's activity is still to come," Gerry Bell, a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) meteorologist, told reporters.

    In May, NOAA predicted the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season would be above normal, with up to 15 tropical storms and nine hurricanes. (Full story)

    The Atlantic hurricane season typically peaks in August and ends on November 30.

    The new forecast, based on atmospheric conditions and warm ocean temperatures, would mean a record number of named, tropical storms. The previous record was 19 tropical storms in 1995, according to NOAA.

    The increased activity is due to cyclical conditions, not global warming, NOAA officials said. Hurricane activity was low in the 1980s and early 1990s and a more active cycle of hurricanes is now under way, Bell said.

    "It's certainly reasonable to expect above-normal hurricane seasons for the next decade or perhaps even longer," Bell said. "It's not a matter of if more hurricanes are going to hit the coast, it's simply a matter of when."

    In early July, Hurricane Dennis pounded the U.S. Gulf Coast with sustained winds of 120 miles per hour, causing losses estimated as high as $5 billion. Later in the month, Hurricane Emily made landfall in the Gulf Coast about 75 miles south of the U.S.-Mexico border with winds of 125 mph.

    So far this year, tropical storms and hurricanes have halted more than 6.14 million barrels of U.S. crude oil production from the offshore Gulf of Mexico. Damage from last year's Hurricane Ivan cut about 45 million barrels of crude output over six months after that storm toppled platforms and damaged undersea pipelines, making it the most damaging hurricane to the energy industry on record.

    Billions of losses in 2004
    The 2004 hurricane season was one of the most devastating ever recorded. The Atlantic Ocean churned out 15 tropical storms, nine of which turned into hurricanes, and caused billions of dollars in damage to the Caribbean and the United States.

    David Johnson, director of NOAA's National Weather Service, said that while coastal communities are at highest risk, Americans living inland also need to be prepared for damaging storms. About half of all hurricane deaths and injuries occur from inland fresh water flooding, he said.

    Tropical disturbances and storms typically form off the west coast of Africa, then move west toward the Caribbean and the United States as they strengthen.

    NOAA officials said they could not predict how of the 2005 storms would hit the U.S. coast, or where.

    However, Joe Bastardi, a meteorologist with private forecasting company AccuWeather, predicted most of the remaining storms this year will take a more easterly path than the June and July storms that entered the Gulf of Mexico.

    "The most action will be from August 15 to October 15 along the Eastern Seaboard. I'm targeting the Carolinas for the worst," Bastardi said. "Also, there will be (landfalls) in New England and the Florida coast."

    A study published this week in the science journal Nature said hurricanes have become more destructive during the last 30 years and their growing intensity could be caused by global warming. The report by Kerry Emanuel of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) said the duration and wind speed of hurricanes increased by 50 percent. (Full story)

    NOAA said its detailed hurricane records only date back to 1945, which means it lacks enough data to determine if there is any link to global warming.

    "We're not convinced that global warming is playing an important role yet, or if at all, in this era of increased activity," Bell said.




    Psycho

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    Re: NOAA updated hurricane predictions
    « Reply #1 on: August 02, 2005, 01:19:13 PM »
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  • Aaaawwww shiiiiiiit! We'll see.

    Offline dynamite

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    Re: NOAA updated hurricane predictions
    « Reply #2 on: August 02, 2005, 01:41:48 PM »
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  • I am very excited....very excited....
    howdy

    Offline skSURF

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    Re: NOAA updated hurricane predictions
    « Reply #3 on: August 02, 2005, 02:00:27 PM »
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  • That's the best thing I've heard all day.
    Trust in the board.