Author Topic: Aug 14th  (Read 979 times)

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Offline little_nasty

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Aug 14th
« on: August 14, 2005, 09:21:44 AM »
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  • Well, she's here!  Jersey's probably decent right now.

    Unfortunately, looks like she's weakened a little and won't even make hurricane status.  Still she should come to within 360nm in less than 24hrs - overnight tonight - before whisking off to the east.  Those swells should be about 24-28hrs away, so Tuesday morning's swell should depend greatly on when she makes her turn since i believe it will fade rapidly after she does.  Her size is back down to less than 14,000 sq.nm. and is expected to remain about the same through our perigee.

    Importantly, the swell we're seeing now was created over a range of time about 72hrs ago from a distance of over 1000 nm.  The thing is that she was headed toward us at the time, so there's a lot of wave trains created over a long period of time all riding on the same track.  It's a little hard to explain - a little like one of those questions on math tests like "mary gets on a train at 2pm going 50mph and johnny gets on another train...." - like that times 100.  So it mostly depends on the relationship between the period of swell being generated and the varying distance to our shore as she's moving closer - there could be a lot of constructive interference resulting in bigger swell and some nice outsized sets, or not at all.  I'm not really gonna try and figure it out.  Judging by what's showing, i think it's more likely to happen (or be happening) in NJ at this point.

    <a href="http://www.yesalbum.com/v001/little_nasty/surf_report050814920.swf" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="bbc_link bbc_flash_disabled new_win">http://www.yesalbum.com/v001/little_nasty/surf_report050814920.swf</a>
    « Last Edit: August 14, 2005, 09:49:59 AM by little_nasty »

    Offline SeaCliff

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    Re: Aug 14th
    « Reply #1 on: August 14, 2005, 09:29:53 AM »
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  • Wow. What an amazing coincidence. My morning meeting for tomorrow just got cancelled.  ;) ;D ;D ;D
    Webmaster, NYNJSurf.com - Follow NYNJSurf on Instagram - click here ---> @NYNJSurf - Site Comments, questions or requests? Email me! [email protected]

    Offline JerseyJen

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    Re: Aug 14th
    « Reply #2 on: August 14, 2005, 10:50:25 AM »
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  • Well, she's here!  Jersey's probably decent right now.

    chest to head in N. Monmouth early today with a lot of closeouts, a lot of people and the wind has come up.
    not worth the gas $$ if you're thinking of heading down.
    If there is magic on the planet, it is contained in the water.--Loren Eisley

    ya_bloody_wanka

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    Re: Aug 14th
    « Reply #3 on: August 14, 2005, 11:30:15 AM »
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  • all im hoping for is offshores tommorow

    Offline uptown

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    Re: Aug 14th
    « Reply #4 on: August 14, 2005, 01:52:46 PM »
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  • little nasty
    you should probably keep a low profile, because if the government finds out about you they will probably take you away from us and force you to design space-age missiles for blowing up other countries.  this would be bad for many reasons.

    Offline little_nasty

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    Re: Aug 14th
    « Reply #5 on: August 14, 2005, 02:27:44 PM »
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  • and yet somehow i still can't seem to pay the rent on time...  ???

    Offline uptown

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    Re: Aug 14th
    « Reply #6 on: August 14, 2005, 04:31:55 PM »
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  • haha
    just stick to what you're doing-- whatever it is it seems to be working

    Offline Chip

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    Re: Aug 14th
    « Reply #7 on: August 14, 2005, 05:38:56 PM »
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  • http://www.surfline.com/surfline/hurricane/

    As of 5pm "Irene is nearly a hurricane". "winds have increased to a near 70mph...110km/hr....with higher gusts. Irene could become a hurricane tonight or early monday"    :) :) this is good news

    Offline little_nasty

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    Re: Aug 14th
    « Reply #8 on: August 14, 2005, 06:02:37 PM »
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  • too little too late imho... she's down to less than 12,000 sq.nm. and will start moving away from us in like 12-18hrs. - add another 24hrs for the swells to get here and she's gonna start shutting off by tuesday afternoon at the latest..  whatever goodness we're gonna get is already on the way or will be generated in the next 12hrs.
    « Last Edit: August 14, 2005, 06:05:32 PM by little_nasty »

    Offline SeaCliff

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    Re: Aug 14th
    « Reply #9 on: August 14, 2005, 09:31:19 PM »
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  • too little too late imho... she's down to less than 12,000 sq.nm. and will start moving away from us in like 12-18hrs. - add another 24hrs for the swells to get here and she's gonna start shutting off by tuesday afternoon at the latest..  whatever goodness we're gonna get is already on the way or will be generated in the next 12hrs.

    True...but it might not be bad for Mario if it turns into a hurricane and spins off towards Ireland, just in time for him to arrive..lucky guy, that Mario...
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    Offline SeaCliff

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    Re: Aug 14th
    « Reply #10 on: August 14, 2005, 09:40:00 PM »
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  • Ehh...just looked at the LR froecasts...prob never strengthen/survice long enought to help out the ireland-bound mario...oh well..
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    Offline surfnli

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    Re: Aug 14th
    « Reply #11 on: August 14, 2005, 10:35:35 PM »
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  • shoobie do ln.  riddle me this: how was the east end large (sets head occ bigger)?  i locked into some nice zippers this am and yesterday pm.  whatever irene's doing, i like.  i like so much actually, that i don't even mind that i don't even mind that i have to take my car to the shop tomorrow am and go into nyc for interviews in the pm.  putting in about 14 quality water hours in two days, 18 or so in three can do that to ya.  stoooooooooooooked  :)

    p.s.  why is every swell on the east end this year accompanied with a fog?

    Offline little_nasty

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    Re: Aug 14th
    « Reply #12 on: August 14, 2005, 10:41:25 PM »
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  • shoobie do ln.  riddle me this: how was the east end large (sets head occ bigger)?  i locked into some nice zippers this am and yesterday pm.  whatever irene's doing, i like.  i like so much actually, that i don't even mind that i don't even mind that i have to take my car to the shop tomorrow am and go into nyc for interviews in the pm.  putting in about 14 quality water hours in two days, 18 or so in three can do that to ya.  stoooooooooooooked  :)

    p.s.  why is every swell on the east end this year accompanied with a fog?
    will answer in aug 15ht thread