Author Topic: Aug 13th  (Read 571 times)

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Offline little_nasty

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Aug 13th
« on: August 13, 2005, 08:57:58 AM »
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  • <a href="http://www.yesalbum.com/v001/little_nasty/surf_report050813928.swf" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="bbc_link bbc_flash_disabled new_win">http://www.yesalbum.com/v001/little_nasty/surf_report050813928.swf</a>
    « Last Edit: August 13, 2005, 09:30:23 AM by little_nasty »

    Offline little_nasty

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    Re: Aug 13th
    « Reply #1 on: August 13, 2005, 09:17:37 AM »
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  • well here's my morning take on Irene.  Basically, all the models are now tracking her a little farther east and a whole lot faster.  Both bad news.  Still, closest range is now estimated to be around 340nm in only 48hrs which is Monday morning before sunrise.  Swells generated at that time are about 25hrs away, so expect to see those bright and early on Tuesday morning.  Obviously she should continue to show between now and then.  But given that none of the models are suggesting much strengthening and the fact that she'll start motoring away from us after this - I would expect the fade to be quite rapid after she starts heading away from us.

    As the models suggested earlier, her storm force wind field has actually shrunk slightly to 14,000 sq.nm..  And although her max projected size is now up to 20,000 sq.nm. by Monday morning corresponding with our perigee, she's still about 1/5th the size of Fabian who I've been using as a benchmark.  Consequently, my personal view is that unless she dramatically strengthens and grows, I think it would be very unlikely to see the well overhead surf that i've seen predicted.  But we can continue to hope.

    I still think the closest comparable in very recent times is TS Arthur of 2002.  Passed through the same area, about the same distance from our shores, 45-55kt winds, but only about 1/2 the wave generation.  The best he gave us was 2.9ft in the 8-9 second range - pretty much waist high.  Irene is about 2 1/2 times his size, a little stronger, and about the same distance.  We'll see.
    « Last Edit: August 13, 2005, 09:50:07 AM by little_nasty »

    Jake

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    Re: Aug 13th
    « Reply #2 on: August 13, 2005, 09:22:45 AM »
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  • seein nothing

    Offline Årne Longbörgenssen

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    Re: Aug 13th
    « Reply #3 on: August 13, 2005, 09:28:48 AM »
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  • who do i have to talk to to have irene build all the way across the atlantic and slam into the southwest of ireland, say about next friday or saturday ?
    The energy contained in one kilogram of thorium
    equals four thousand tons of coal

    Offline little_nasty

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    Re: Aug 13th
    « Reply #4 on: August 13, 2005, 10:06:43 AM »
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  • who do i have to talk to to have irene build all the way across the atlantic and slam into the southwest of ireland, say about next friday or saturday ?
    mario - if you give me the exact long/lat, i'll see what the model spits out.

    Offline Årne Longbörgenssen

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    Re: Aug 13th
    « Reply #5 on: August 13, 2005, 02:23:37 PM »
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  • just pm'd you with the coordinates.
    The energy contained in one kilogram of thorium
    equals four thousand tons of coal

    Offline little_nasty

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    Re: Aug 13th
    « Reply #6 on: August 13, 2005, 04:49:14 PM »
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  • made a few little assumptions about your swell window and whatnot - and i'm sure you know about the effect of tides and all.  but anyway, here it is.

    sun:  1ft WSW at 7.4s / Waist high with dmnshg 11-8kt NNW to NW offshores.
    mon:  flat
    tue:  flat
    wed:  1-2ft SW at 6.4s / Building waist to chest high SSW chop developing afternoon with 9-11kt S to SSW onshores.
    thu:  1-2ft W at 8.4s / Fading waist to chest maybe head high short groundswell with 17kt S onshores becoming 18-16kt WNW offshores.
    fri:  1ft WNW at 9.4s / Fading waist high groundswell with 14-15kt NW offshores.
    sat:  1ft SW at 5.5s / Building waist ocnl chest high maturing windchop with 6kt W sideshores becomign dmnshg 5-1kt WSW onshore afternoon.

    Best bets: Sun 11a-2p, Thu 3p-5p, Fri 7a-11a
    « Last Edit: August 13, 2005, 04:51:52 PM by little_nasty »

    Offline Årne Longbörgenssen

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    Re: Aug 13th
    « Reply #7 on: August 13, 2005, 04:54:30 PM »
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  • thanks man.

    hmmm. doesnt exactly look raging. i have high hopes for the end of the week and next week. (based entirely on nothing)
    The energy contained in one kilogram of thorium
    equals four thousand tons of coal