TS Bertha

[Justin-PI]

Chillll Winnnnstonnnn!

I'm no Gotham Surfer or a Brozillian wave snaking-master, but I think we're overdoing it about how it's impossible to catch waves at your home break even in the summer. You can't get a more crowded spot than r*** and I am an impatient mu'effer, and even I don't lose my mind about it.

With a few rare exceptions, I seldom drag my ass to the beach in summer unless it's one of the 3 or 4 days it'll be good, but even then, you'll get waves if people in the water are familiar with you. And then, once it gets overhead the crowd thins naturally.

[HouseStar]

Umn...Can't we talk about storm possibilities again?   

HSR

[SeaCliff]

Umn...Can't we talk about storm possibilities again?  

HSR

sure.

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/89h13q8aIko" target="_blank">http://www.youtube.com/v/89h13q8aIko</a>

[SeaCliff]

HURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022008
500 PM EDT TUE JUL 08 2008

BERTHA'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION CONTINUES TO DEGRADE THIS AFTERNOON
AND DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS HAVE FALLEN DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 75 KT BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF THE
VARIOUS INTENSITY ESTIMATES. INDEED...BERTHA'S RAPID
INTENSIFICATION YESTERDAY HAS BEEN EQUALED BY ITS RAPID WEAKENING
TODAY. SUCH INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS REMAIN A FORECASTING CHALLENGE
AND SERVE AS AN IMPORTANT REMINDER FOR THE UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED
WITH INTENSITY FORECASTS. GIVEN THE CURRENT TREND IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY...CONTINUED WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE IN THE SHORT-TERM. MOST
OF THE INTENSITY MODELS SUGGEST THAT BERTHA MIGHT EVEN REGAIN SOME
STRENGTH LATER IN THE FORECAST AS THE SHEAR RELAXES AND THE SSTS
INCREASE. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS
SLIGHT WEAKENING IN THE SHORT-TERM WITH LITTLE CHANGE THEREAFTER.

BERTHA CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE OF 310/10. BERTHA SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY TURN
NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WEAKENS AND IS REPLACED BY A WEAK TROUGH. THIS
EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN COULD RESULT IN THE STEERING
CURRENTS BECOMING RATHER WEAK BEYOND 72 HOURS...AND BERTHA COULD
MOVE SLOWLY AND ERRATICALLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST. IT IS
FOR THIS REASON THAT INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TRACK MODELS HAVE NOT CHANGED
SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY AND NEITHER HAS THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.

[HouseStar]

I don't have the cast skills that many folks on here do but my recollection is that every time a storm slows down and isn't completely ripped apart by shear, even if it is downgraded it tends to get us some decent waves...

HSR

[SeaCliff]

I don't have the cast skills that many folks on here do but my recollection is that every time a storm slows down and isn't completely ripped apart by shear, even if it is downgraded it tends to get us some decent waves...

HSR

That's a decent observation - as far as I'm concerned, if she could just pick a spot 300-700 miles off our coast and just loiter there for a while, I'll be a really happy guy. 

[nycwipeout]

you are such a surf slut! whore! 

[aNYsurfer]

I don't have the cast skills that many folks on here do but my recollection is that every time a storm slows down and isn't completely ripped apart by shear, even if it is downgraded it tends to get us some decent waves...

HSR

Bertha has been moving across the Atlantic for five or more days now with strong winds for the last few days. If you read the Advisory#23 below it states 12 foot seas extend out 270 miles NE, 180 miles SE, 150 miles SW and 240 miles NW. We are interested in the NE and NW quadrant since that is where the waves are being produced that are heading our way. While they may not be 12" when they reach here. I know they will be big enough to make me a happy surfer.
 
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT2+shtml/082031.shtml
000
WTNT22 KNHC 082031
TCMAT2
HURRICANE BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022008
2100 UTC TUE JUL 08 2008


HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N  54.8W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT.......120NE  60SE  45SW  75NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 180SE 150SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N  54.8W AT 08/2100Z
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.4N  54.4W

[frr#cK]

where the hell is little nasty!!!   

some needs to call the whhaaaabulance on few of you turd burglars...

[aNYsurfer]

To the crowd bashers,
Crowds are only a problem when you think you own the ocean and waves.

[Whiskey Tango]

To the crowd bashers,
Crowds are only a problem when you think you own the ocean and waves.

crowds arent a problem when you have no clue what your doing...

[surfdawg]

This thing looks like fun swell for days, so crowds should calm down after people get their fill.

I do like what the FSU model is suggesting

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.cgi?time=2008070800&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[EastEndWahine]

definitely agree that it's going to be fun no matter what

[Arizona Rick]

Ya fun just in time for the weekend- oh not so fun...

[aNYsurfer]

To the crowd bashers,
Crowds are only a problem when you think you own the ocean and waves.

crowds arent a problem when you have no clue what your doing...

Then you should spend some quality time cluing in the clueless.