TS Bertha

[waterwolfnyc]

The hype happens here-I say: Bring it Bitch.

TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
1100 AM EDT THU JUL 03 2008

THIS MORNINGS VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN
HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH TWO DISTINCT SPIRALING BANDS
OF DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB
ARE 35 KT....THEREFORE THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL
STORM...THE SECOND OF THE 2008 ATLANTIC SEASON.

RECENT MICROWAVE AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE
CENTER IS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH AND WEST OF THE PREVIOUS
ESTIMATES. BECAUSE OF THE RELOCATION OF THE CENTER...THE INITIAL
MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 285/12...A LITTLE FASTER THAN
BEFORE. BERTHA IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN ATLANTIC AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
ON A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.
THEREAFTER...THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT BERTHA WILL APPROACH A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE
GFS...HWRF...AND GFDL MODELS THEREFORE SHOW A NORTHWESTWARD TURN
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE
FASTER AND NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS
OF THE GFDL...GFS...HWRF...AND ECMWF MODELS.

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...HOWEVER...COOLER WATERS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD
LIMIT INTENSIFICATION. SSTS ALONG THE TRACK ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AFTER 48 HOURS WHICH WOULD FAVOR SOME STRENGTHENING.
HOWEVER...LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE WHICH AGAIN SHOULD HALT STRENGTHENING. THE
SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS PREDICT BERTHA TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN 72 TO
96 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST WILL REMAIN A
LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE GFDL AND HWRF
SOLUTIONS.

OUTER RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH BERTHA ARE EXPECTED TO BRING GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

[SeaCliff]

Ha! You just beat me to this, WW!!

Isnt she beautiful?? 



Thursday, Jul 03, 2008 - 05:09 AM Updated: 05:24 AM

By Associated Press
Tropical depression forms over the far eastern atlantic ocean,

At 500 am edt, 0900z, the center of tropical depression two was located near latitude 12.6 north, longitude 22.7 west or about 250 miles, 405 km, south-southeast of the cape verde islands.

The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph and this general motion with some increase in forward speed is expected for the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph, 55 km/hr, with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours and the depression could become a tropical storm later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb, 29.77 inches.

Repeating the 500 am edt position, 12.6 n, 22.7 w. Movement toward, west-northwest near 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds, 35 mph. Minimum central pressure, 1008 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the national hurricane center at 1100 am edt.

*******************

 

[RayG]

and when it hits that dry air pocket and shear winds... pooof...

[waterwolfnyc]

don't hate ray--it is so far east and so early, it formed off the African coast--prior to passing the Cape Verdes--that is impressive in and some are saying historic.

anything spinning  that far out for a few days away in this tiny ocean is ALL GOOD IN my book 

[rontarded]

i feel like i remember a bertha swell from years back, no?

[SeaCliff]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022008
500 PM AST FRI JUL 04 2008

...BERTHA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC...

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 31.6 WEST OR ABOUT 505
MILES...815 KM...WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS FORECAST TONIGHT...BUT SOME
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...15.5 N...31.6 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

[SeaCliff]

It's early, but so far so good....



 

[Mcfanning twin]

hell yeah...the new forecast track is looking really good in our favor.  hopefully it can make it to hurricane status. 

[onefinookas]

As of 5:00 Am, Bertha's strength remains the same, with winds sustained at 50 MPH with higher gusts. However, the forecast track continues to shift towards the south putting the east coast United States, and Bermuda in jeopardy. The shift south is due to two fundamental reasons: Bertha's intensity, and the ridge of high pressure. During the past couple days, the computer models such as the GFS were aggressive on rapidly intensifying Bertha into a substantial tropical cyclone. Nevertheless as time progresses, it became apparent that Bertha will experience "slow" intensification. Consequently, the weakening of the ridge of high pressure will have less of an "impact" on it. Furthermore, models were also aggressive on significantly weakening the high during these past few days, and some had forecast that Bertha would "split" the high. It also became apparent that the weakening the high pressure system is not as significant as expected. Ultimately when all these factors are blend together, the track will shift south. The highest uncertainty right now is the intensity forecast because; the current sea surface temperatures (SSTS) are about 25-26 degrees Celsius, which barely supports convection. Nonetheless as it moves westward, it will encounter warmer water and high wind shear, which means, conditions will be marginally favorable. Thus, it is reasonable for the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to forecast a slow intensification.

[SeaCliff]

As of 5:00 Am, Bertha's strength remains the same, with winds sustained at 50 MPH with higher gusts. However, the forecast track continues to shift towards the south putting the east coast United States, and Bermuda in jeopardy. The shift south is due to two fundamental reasons: Bertha's intensity, and the ridge of high pressure. During the past couple days, the computer models such as the GFS were aggressive on rapidly intensifying Bertha into a substantial tropical cyclone. Nevertheless as time progresses, it became apparent that Bertha will experience "slow" intensification. Consequently, the weakening of the ridge of high pressure will have less of an "impact" on it. Furthermore, models were also aggressive on significantly weakening the high during these past few days, and some had forecast that Bertha would "split" the high. It also became apparent that the weakening the high pressure system is not as significant as expected. Ultimately when all these factors are blend together, the track will shift south. The highest uncertainty right now is the intensity forecast because; the current sea surface temperatures (SSTS) are about 25-26 degrees Celsius, which barely supports convection. Nonetheless as it moves westward, it will encounter warmer water and high wind shear, which means, conditions will be marginally favorable. Thus, it is reasonable for the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to forecast a slow intensification.

5 day projection, as of 5AM 7/5/08:



 

[ChopChaser]

I think PR is the place to be in case this one fades.

[nycfunkart]

in the past when storms track toward bermuda we generally get the best swell direction here

[Whiskey Tango]

gee... i wish i couls fly to puerto rico for free...  anyone know anyone who works for an airline... 

[SeaCliff]

in the past when storms track toward bermuda we generally get the best swell direction here

Looking at the image above and assuming all things hold, I'd have to think that by 2AM thursday, Rincon should be lighting up pretty well...damn....

Still, I'm keeping as many options open for next weekend and the early part of the following week as possible...we'll see.....

[Crackie Onassis]

PR during a tropical storm? Eff that.