[SeaCliff]

TROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092010
500 PM AST WED SEP 01 2010

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONSOLIDATED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH AN INTENSE CONVECTIVE BAND IN THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 45
KT AND 30 KT...RESPECTIVELY...WITH AMSU ESTIMATES FROM CIRA AND CSU
INDICATING 50 KT AND 37 KT. OVERALL THIS SYSTEM APPEARS BETTER
ORGANIZED THAN SIX HOURS AGO...AND A BLEND OF THESE DATA GIVES AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT...MAKING GASTON THE SEVENTH NAMED STORM
OF THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON.

THERE IS STILL A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR TO THE WEST AND NORTH
OF THE TROPICAL STORM...WHICH MAY HINDER STRENGTHENING.  HOWEVER...
ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THAT A RELATIVELY LIGHT SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE PRESENT NEAR GASTON FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 
THE GUIDANCE NOW INDICATES CONSIDERABLY MORE INTENSIFICATION OF
GASTON...WITH THE NORMALLY CONSERVATIVE LGEM SHOWING THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THE NHC
FORECAST IS RAISED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT REMAINS LOWER THAN
THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  

[surfnli]

gaston and that guy/gal behind him better show up the weekend after this one.  pretty please. 

[SeaCliff]

I like the spacing between Fiona and Gaston....plenty of room for Gaston to grow...

[Kdropin]

 

[EastEndWahine]

awooooooga

[MJRPhoto]

EEW,
See you soon

[Shacky]

Earl. Gaston.  I with SeaCliff, give me some chic names.

[braden]

Earl. Gaston.  I with SeaCliff, give me some chic names.

this is what I think of when I think of the name Gaston:

[SeaCliff]

Hahahhaha..yeah, me to, Braden.....

[SeaCliff]

On a positive note, as of 8am, the remnants of Gaston appear to be reorganizing, and are showing a 70% chance of becoming a TS again... 

***********************

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
GASTON CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING. 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD RE-FORM IN THIS AREA LATER
TODAY OR TONIGHT. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

*******************