[onefinookas]

anyone for a labor day evacuation?

[Lemonbalm]

time to stock up

[manbearpig]

Wow hopefully it tracks more east when it starts getting close to us

[SeaCliff]

Wow.... Just a weeeeeee bit too close for comfort.... like MBP said, we need that track to bump east just a bit....

[Homestar]

Not good.

[Dub_G]

Time will tell what it really does, but that EXACT track is what delivers some of the best Hurricane surf we get; solid pumping surf without evacuation hassles or significant damage.

If it travels 200 miles west of that track then things can get serious. Considering the unpredictability of hurricanes, it is wise to be aware of that possibility as per Onefins subject heading.

[onefinookas]

THU  SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 5 TO 6 FT.    THU NIGHT  TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. A CHANCE OF  SHOWERS.    FRI  TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS  AND TSTMS.   


tropical storm I am fine with, if this gets upgraded another notch, exit stage left even. 

Blech,

[uncutproducts]

The beaches are gone out east already. Both outerbeaches I tried heading out at were closed. Walked out and was amazed at how much sand was gone. Glad my flood insurance is current.

[surfnli]

and i'm not sure where that sand went, sure as hell wasn't to the sandbars.

[frroK]

I'm on the second floor.

[Dub_G]

Hey Onefin-


If the storm takes the latest track you posted, perfect scenario for great surf, the center will be too far offshore to significantly impact land, even if it is a CAT 4+. Latest estimates show Earl as a CAT 3 off outer banks decreasing strength as it moves northward from there.


Latest models have shifted the track a bit more west. The hurricane tracking models have a 200-300 mile margin of error with estimates 4-5 days ahead. This will be very interesting.

[obfuscations]

"NHC is giving Cape Hatteras a 9% chance of receiving hurricane force winds, the highest of any place along the U.S. coast. These odds are 6% for Nantucket, 2% for Boston, and 1% for New York City. The main determinant of whether Earl hits the U.S. or not is a strong trough of low pressure predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast Friday. This trough, if it develops as predicted, should be strong enough to recurve Earl out to sea late in the week, with the storm just missing landfall in the U.S., but possibly making landfall in Nova Scotia, Canada."

[NJ Longboarder]

Time to read up on your hurricane deductible if you live near the coast.  My home owners insurance deductible is usually $500.  Once a storm is classified as a hurricane, they have these weird percentages that make no sense until you add them all up and your deductible is over $20k. 
 
Hoping Earl swings to the right a bit
 
 

[jscottk]

1938 Hurricane

Change track Earl

[SeaCliff]

Love the music. The narrator's voice fits perfectly, too.

I can't see Earl being 1938 Redux - but anytime the track is what this track is, we're all going to be more than a little nervous.